East Asia yaigara iri musimboti wegiravhiti mukugadzira mabhatiri e-lithium-ion, asi mukati meEast Asia nzvimbo yesimba rinokwevera zvinhu pasi zvishoma nezvishoma yakatsvedza yakananga kuChina mukutanga kwema2000.Nhasi, makambani ekuChina ane zvinzvimbo zvakakosha mupasi rose relithium supply chain, kumusoro nekudzika, inomiririra 80% yekugadzira masero ebhatiri kubva muna 2021.1. , uye zvino muna 2020 shanduko yepasi rose kumotokari dzemagetsi (EVs) iri kuisa mhepo mumaseiri emabhatiri e-lithium-ion.Kunzwisisa makambani eLithium eChinese saka kwakakosha kuti unzwisise kuti chii chiri kupa simba kuvhiya kuri kuuya mukutorwa kweEV.
The Center of Gravity Shifted Towards China
Zvakawanda zvekuhwina mubairo weNobel zvakakonzera kutengeswa kwemabhatiri e lithium, kunyanya naStanley Whittingham kuma 1970 naJohn Goodenough muna 1980. Kunyange zvazvo kuedza uku kusina kubudirira zvachose, kwakaisa pasi kuti Dr. Akira Yoshino abudirire zvikuru muna 1985, izvo yakaita kuti mabhatiri e-lithium-ion achengetedzeke uye aite zvekutengesa.Kubva ipapo zvichienda mberi, Japan yaive negumbo-kumusoro mujaho rekutanga kutengesa lithium mabhatiri uye kusimuka kweSouth Korea kwakaita kuti East Asia ive pakati peindastiri.
Pakazosvika 2015, China yakapfuura zvese South Korea neJapan kuti ive yepamusoro yekutengesa kunze kwemabhatiri e-lithium-ion.Kuseri kwekukwira uku kwaive nemubatanidzwa wekuedza kwemitemo uye bhizinesi rakashinga.Makambani maviri madiki, BYD neContemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL), akave matrailblazers uye ave kuita 70% yebhatiri remuChina.2
Muna 1999, injiniya anonzi Robin Zeng akabatsira kuwana Amperex Technology Limited (ATL), iyo turbo yakawedzera kukura kwayo muna 2003 nekuwana chibvumirano neApple kugadzira mabhatiri ePod.Muna 2011, EV bhatiri mashandiro eATL akasudururwa muContemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL).Muhafu yekutanga ya2022, CATL yakatora 34.8% yepasi rose EV bhatiri musika.3
Muna 1995, kemisitiri anonzi Wang Chuanfu akananga kumaodzanyemba kuShenzhen, kunotanga BYD.Kubudirira kweBYD kwekutanga muindasitiri yelithium kwakabva mukugadzira mabhatiri emafoni uye zvemagetsi zvevatengi uye kutenga kweBYD zvinhu zvakagadziriswa kubva kuBeijing Jeep Corporation kwakaratidza kutanga kwerwendo rwayo munzvimbo yemotokari.Muna 2007, kufambira mberi kweBYD kwakabata ziso reBerkshire Hathaway.Pakupera kwehafu yekutanga ya2022, BYD yakapfuura Tesla mukutengesa kweEV yepasi rose, kunyangwe ichiuya nechaveat iyo BYD inotengesa ese maEV akachena uye akasanganiswa, nepo Tesla achingotarisa paEVs.4
Kusimuka kweCATL neBYD kwakabatsirwa nerutsigiro rwepolicy.Muna 2004, mabhatiri e-lithium akatanga kupinda muchirongwa chevagadziri vemitemo yeChina, ne "Matongerwo eKuvandudza Indasitiri Yemotokari," uye gare gare muna 2009 uye 2010 nekuiswa kwerubatsiro rwemabhatiri uye zviteshi zvekuchaja zveEVs.5 Mumakore ose e2010, chirongwa yezvibatsiro zvakapa $ 10,000 kusvika ku $ 20,000 yemotokari yemagetsi uye yakaitwa chete kumakambani anounganidza motokari muChina ane lithium-ion mabhatiri kubva kune vanobvumirwa neChina vatengesi.6 Zvichitaurwa zviri nyore, kunyange zvazvo vagadziri vebhatiri vekunze vakabvumirwa kukwikwidza mumusika weChina, rubatsiro rwakaitwa. Vagadziri vebhatiri veChinese ndiyo inonyanya kutaridzika sarudzo.
EV Adoption muChina Yakafambisa Lithium Demand
Hutungamiri hweChina mukutorwa kweEV chimwe chechikonzero nei kudiwa kwepasi rose kwemabhatiri e lithium kuri kuwedzera.Kubva muna 2021, 13% yemotokari dzakatengeswa kuChina dzaive dzakasanganiswa kana maEV chaiwo uye nhamba iyoyo inotarisirwa kuwedzera.Kukura kweCATL neBYD kuita hofori dzepasi rose mukati memakumi maviri emakore kunofukidza simba reEVs muChina.
Sezvo maEV anowedzera kuwanda, kudiwa kuri kusimuka kubva kumabhatiri ane nickel kudzokera kumabhatiri ane iron-based (LFPs), ayo akambotadza kufarirwa nekuve nekushomeka kwesimba density (saka yakadzikira).Zviri nyore kuChina, 90% yeLFP yekugadzira masero pasi rose inobva kuChina.7 Nzira yekuchinja kubva nickel-based kusvika kuLFP haina kuoma, saka China icharasikirwa neimwe yemugove wayo munzvimbo ino, asi China inoratidzika zvakadaro. yakarongedzwa zvakanaka kuchengetedza chinzvimbo chepamusoro munzvimbo yeLFP yeramangwana rinoonekwa.
Mumakore achangopfuura, BYD yanga ichisundira kumberi neLFP Blade Battery, iyo inosimudza zvakanyanya bara rekuchengetedza bhatiri.Iine itsva bhatiri pack chimiro chinonatsiridza kushandiswa kwenzvimbo, BYD yakaratidza kuti Blade Battery haina kungopfuura chipikiri chekupinda bvunzo, asi tembiricha yepasi yakaramba ichitonhorera zvakakwana zvakare. motokari, magadzirirwo makuru akaita seToyota neTesla vari kurongawo kana kuti vari kutoshandisa Blade Battery, kunyange naTesla kumwe kusava nechokwadi kunoramba kuri pamusoro pekuti ingani.9,10,11
Zvichakadaro, muna Chikumi 2022 CATL yakatanga bhatiri reQilin.Kusiyana neBattery Blade iyo inotarisira kushandura mitemo yekuchengetedza, Qilin bhatiri inozvisiyanisa zvakanyanya pahuwandu hwesimba uye nguva dzekuchaja.12 CATL inoti bhatiri rinogona kubhadharwa ku80% mukati memaminitsi gumi uye rinogona kushandisa 72% yesimba rebhatiri pakutyaira, zvose. izvo zvinoratidzira kukura kukuru kwehunyanzvi hwekuita mabhatiri aya.13,14
Makambani eChinese Akachengetedza Strategic Position muGlobal Supply Chain
Nepo basa reCATL neBYD munzvimbo yeEV rakakosha, kuvepo kukuru kweChina muzvikamu zvepamusoro hazvifanire kufuratirwa.Chikamu cheshumba chekugadzirwa kwelithium mbishi chinoitika muAustralia neChile, iyo ine chikamu chepasi rose che55% uye 26%.Kumusoro kwemvura, China inongotora 14% yekugadzirwa kwe lithium yepasi rose.15 Pasinei neizvi, makambani eChina akagadzira kuvapo kwepamusoro pemvura mumakore achangopfuura kuburikidza nekutenga kwekutengesa kwemigodhi pasi rose.
Kutenga uku kuri kuitwa nevanogadzira mabhatiri nevacheri vemigodhi zvakafanana.Mienzaniso mishoma inocherechedzwa muna 2021 inosanganisira Zijin Mining Group's $765mn yekutenga Tres Quebradas uye CATL's $298mn yekutenga Cauchari East nePastos Grandes, ese muArgentina.16 Muna Chikunguru 2022, Ganfeng Lithium yakazivisa hurongwa hwayo hwekutora zana reLithea Inc. muArgentina pamutengo wemutengo unosvika $962mn.17 Zvichitaurwa zviri nyore, lithiamu chinhu chakakosha kumashure kwegirinhi revolution uye makambani eChinese anoda kuisa mari mu lithium kuti ave nechokwadi chekuti haana kusiyiwa kunze.
Kuchengetedza Kwemagetsi Kunoratidza Kunogoneka Pakati peMatambudziko Ezvakatipoteredza
Zvisungo zveChina zvekuwana hutsi hwepamusoro panosvika 2030 uye kusarerekera kabhoni panosvika 2060 chimwe chezviri kukurudzira kudiwa kwekutorwa kweEV.Chimwe chinhu chakakosha mukubudirira kwezvinangwa zveChina zvinogoneka kugamuchirwa kwehunyanzvi hwekuchengeta simba.Kuchengetedzwa kwemagetsi kunoenda pamwe chete nemapurojekiti emagetsi emagetsi uye ndosaka hurumende yeChina yave kurayira 5-20% yesimba rekuchengetedza simba kuti riende nemapurojekiti emagetsi anovandudzwa.Kuchengeta kwakakosha kuchengetedza kudzikisira, kureva kudzikiswa kwemaune mukubuda kwemagetsi nekuda kwekushaikwa kwekuda kana matambudziko ekutapurirana, kusvika kushoma.
Pumped hydro storage ndiyo inonyanya kushandiswa kwekuchengetedza simba ne 30.3 GW kubva muna 2020, zvisinei kuti inenge 89% ye-non-hydro storage iri kuburikidza ne lithium-ion mabhatiri.18,19 Apo pumped hydro inonyanya kukodzera kuchengetedza kwenguva refu, lithium. mabhatiri anonyatsokodzera kuchengetedza kwenguva pfupi, izvo zvinonyanya kudiwa kune anovandudza.
China parizvino ine chete 3.3GW yebhatiri simba rekuchengetedza simba asi ine zvirongwa zvekuwedzera kukuru.Zvirongwa izvi zvakatsanangurwa zvakadzama muchirongwa chegumi nemana cheMakore mashanu cheKuchengetedzwa kweMagetsi icho chakaburitswa munaKurume 2022.20 Chimwe chezvinangwa zvikuru zvechirongwa ndechekucheka mutengo wega wega wekuchengetedza simba ne30% panosvika 2025, izvo zvinobvumira kuchengetedza. kuti ive sarudzo inodiwa mune zveupfumi.21 Uyezve, pasi pechirongwa ichi, State Grid inotarisira kuwedzera 100GW musimba rekuchengetedza bhatiri panosvika gore ra2030 kuti ritsigire kukura kwerimwe bhatiri, izvo zvichaita kuti ngarava dzekuChina dzinochengeta mabhatiri dzive dzakakura kwazvo pasi rose, kunyangwe mberi zvishoma. iyo US iyo inofungidzirwa kuva ne99GW.22
Mhedziso
Makambani eChinese akato shandura iyo yepasi rose lithium supply chain, asi ari kuenderera mberi nekuvandudza nekukurumidza.Sehuchapupu hwekukosha kwavo muindasitiri, kubva muna Nyamavhuvhu 18, 2022, makambani ekuChina akagadzira 41.2% yeSolactive Lithium Index, inova indekisi yakagadzirirwa kutevedzera mashandiro emakambani makuru uye mazhinji emvura anoshanda mukuongorora uye. / kana kucherwa kwe lithium kana kugadzirwa kwemabhatiri e lithium.23 Pasi rose, mitengo ye lithium yakawedzera kakapetwa ka13 pakati paChikunguru 1, 2020 naChikunguru 1, 2022, kusvika pamadhora makumi matanhatu nenomwe nemazana makumi mashanu neshanu. kubva 105000 RMB kusvika 475500 RMB pakati Aug 20, 2021 uye Aug 19, 2022, zvichiratidza kuwedzera 357%.25 With lithium carbonate mitengo kumusoro kana pedyo nenhoroondo highs, makambani Chinese vari pachizvarirwo pachinzvimbo kubatsirwa.
Iyi maitiro emitengo yelithium yakabatsira zvese zveChinese neUS masheya zvine chekuita nemabhatiri uye lithium inodarika inoshanduka yakafara musika indices pakati pemisika yakaipa mamiriro;pakati paAug 18, 2021 naAug 18, 2022, iyo MSCI China All Shares IMI Select Batteries Index yakadzosa 1.60% inopesana -22.28% yeMSCI China All Shares Index.26 Kutaura zvazviri, bhatiri reChinese uye zvinhu zvebhatiri zvakapfuura pasi rose lithium stocks, sezvo MSCI China All Shares IMI Select Batteries Index yakadzoka 1.60% inopesana neSolactive Global Lithium Index inotumira kudzoka kwe -0.74% panguva imwe chete.27
Isu tinotenda mitengo yelithium icharamba yakasimudzwa mumakore anouya, ichiita senge ingangoita mhepo kune vanogadzira mabhatiri.Tichitarisira, zvisinei,kuvandudzwa kwelithium bhatiri tachnology inogona kuita kuti maEVs akwanise kudhura uye anoshanda, izvo zvinozoita kuwedzera kudiwa kwelithium.Tichifunga nezvesimba reChina muiyo lithium supply chain, isu tinotarisira kuti makambani eChinese angangoita basa rakakosha muindasitiri yelithium kwemakore anotevera.
Nguva yekutumira: Nov-05-2022