Lithium mutengo wekufanotaura: Mutengo uchachengeta nzombe yayo ichimhanya here?
Mitengo yebhatiri-giredhi lithium yakadzikira mumavhiki apfuura kunyangwe kushomeka kuri kuramba kuchiitika uye kutengesa kwakasimba kwemotokari dzemagetsi pasi rose.
Mitengo yevhiki nevhiki yelithium hydroxide (yakaderera ye56.5% LiOH2O bhatiri giredhi) yakaenzana madhora zviuru makumi manomwe neshanu patani ($75 pakirogiramu) mutengo, inishuwarenzi uye kutakura zvinhu (CIF) musi wa7 Chikunguru, kubva pamadhora makumi masere nemakumi mashanu nemazana mashanu musi wa7 Chivabvu, maererano neLondon Metal. Exchange (LME) uye mutengo wekubika agency Fastmarkets.
Lithium carbonate mitengo muChina yadzokera kuCNY475,500/tonne ($70,905.61) mukupera kwaChikumi, kubva parekodhi yakakwira yeCNY500,000 munaKurume, sekureva kwehupfumi data mupi Trading Economics.
Nekudaro, mitengo yelithium carbonate uye lithium hydroxide - mbishi zvinhu zvekugadzira mota yemagetsi (EV) mabhatiri - ichiri kaviri kubva pamitengo kutanga kwaNdira.
Iyo downtrend inongova blip yechinguvana here?Muchinyorwa chino isu tinoongorora ichangoburwa musika nhau uye yekugovera-inoda data inoumba lithium mutengo wekufanotaura.
Lithium market overview
Lithium haina musika weramangwana sezvo iri musika mudiki wesimbi maererano nehuwandu hwekutengesa.Nekudaro, inobuda pamusika nzvimbo CME Boka ine lithium hydroxide remangwana, iyo inoshandisa lithium hydroxide mutengo wekuongorora yakaburitswa neFastmarkets.
Muna 2019, iyo LME yakabatana neFastmarkets yakatanga mutengo wereferensi zvichienderana nevhiki nevhiki yekutengeserana nzvimbo index paCIF China, Japan neKorea.
China, Japan neKorea ndiyo misika mitatu mikuru yeseaborne lithium.Iyo lithium nzvimbo mutengo munyika idzodzo inoonekwa seindasitiri bhenji yebhatiri giredhi lithium.
Zvinoenderana nenhoroondo yedata, mitengo yelithium yakadonha pakati pa2018 kusvika 2020 nekuda kwekupa glut sevacheri, sePilbara Minerals neAltura Mining, yakawedzera kugadzirwa.
Mutengo welithium hydroxide wakadzikira kusvika pamadhora mapfumbamwe pakirogiramu musi wa30 Zvita 2020, kubva pamadhora makumi maviri neshanu/kg musi wa4 Ndira 2018. Lithium carbonate yakatengeswa pamadhora mazana matanhatu nenomwe pakg musi wa30 Zvita 2020, kubva pamadhora 19.25 musi wa4 Ndira 2018.
Mitengo yakatanga kukwira kutanga kwa2021 nekuda kwekukura kwakasimba kweEV sezvo hupfumi hwepasi rose hwakakwira kubva pamhedzisiro yeCovid-19 denda.Mutengo welithium carbonate wakakwira zvakapetwa kapfumbamwe kusvika pari zvino kubva pamadhora mazana matanhatu nemakumi manomwe neshanu mukutanga kwaNdira 2021, nepo lithium hydroxide yakawedzera zvakapetwa kanomwe kubva pamadhora mapfumbamwe.
MuGlobal EV Outlook 2022rakabudiswa muna Chivabvu, International Energy Agency (IEA)
yakashuma kutengesa kweEVs yakapetwa kaviri muna 2021 kubva gore rapfuura kuenda kune rekodhi nyowani ye6.6m mayunitsi.Huwandu hwemotokari dzemagetsi mumigwagwa pasi rose dzakasvika 16.5m, zvakapetwa katatu kubva pamari muna 2018.
Muchikamu chekutanga chegore rino, 2 mamiriyoni EV motokari dzakatengeswa, kusvika 75% gore-pamusoro-gore (YOY).
Nekudaro, mitengo yelithium carbonate nzvimbo mumusika weAsia-Pacific yakadzikira muchikamu chechipiri sekubuda kutsva kweCovid-19 kuChina, izvo zvakaita kuti hurumende imise zvivharo, zvakakanganisa kugadzirwa kwezvinhu.
Zvinoenderana nemusika wemakemikari nehungwaru hwemitengo, Chemanalyst, lithium carbonate mutengo wakaongororwa pamadhora makumi manomwe neshanu neshanu / tonne kana $ 72.15/kg muchikamu chechipiri chakapera June 2022, zvichidzika kubva pamadhora makumi manomwe nemazana manomwe nemakumi manomwe neshanu / tonne mukota yekutanga yakapera munaKurume.
Kambani yakanyora kuti:
Zvivakwa zvakati wandei zveMotokari yeMagetsi zvakaderedza kuburitsa kwavo, uye nzvimbo zhinji dzakamisa kugadzirwa kwavo nekuda kwekushaikwa kwakakwana kwezvikamu zvemotokari zvakakosha.
"Kubudirira kwese nekuda kweCCIDID, pamwe nekuferefetwa kwevakuru veChina pamusoro pekukwira kwemitengo yeLithium, kunonetsa shanduko inoenda kuhupfumi hwakasvibira,"
Iko lithium hydroxide mutengo muAsia-Pacific, zvisinei, yakasimuka $ 73,190 / tonne muchikamu chechipiri, kubva ku $ 68,900 / tonne mukota yekutanga, akadaro Chemanalyst.
Supply-inoda maonero anoratidza musika wakaoma
Muna Kurume, hurumende yeAustralia yakafanotaura kuti kudiwa kwelithium pasi rose kunogona kukwira kusvika pa636,000 tonnes yelithium carbonate yakaenzana (LCE) muna 2022, kubva pamatani 526,000 muna 2021. inoramba ichikwira.
Yakafungidzira yepasi rose lithium kubuda kuwedzera zvishoma pamusoro pekudiwa kusvika mazana matanhatu nemakumi mashanu ezviuru ematani LCE muna 650,000 uye 1.47 miriyoni matani muna 2027.
Kuwedzera kwekubuda kwelithium, zvisinei, kungasakwanisa kubata nezvinodiwa kubva kune vanogadzira bhatiri.
Kambani yekutsvagisa Wood Mackenzie inofungidzira muna Kurume kuti yepasi rose cumulative lithium-ion bhatiri huwandu hunogona kukwira zvakapetwa kashanu kusvika pa5,500 gigawatt-awa (GWh) panosvika 2030 kubva 2021 kuti vapindure kuhurongwa hwekuwedzera hweEV.
Jiayue Zheng, Wood Mackenzie vanoongorora, vakati:
"Musika wemotokari yemagetsi (EV) unosvika 80% yelithium-ion bhatiri inoda."
"Mitengo yemafuta yakakwira iri kutsigira misika yakawanda kuti iburitse mitemo yekufambisa yezero-emission, zvichiita kuti kudiwa kwebhatiri relithium-ion kukwire uye kudarika zviuru zvitatu GWh panosvika 2030."
"Musika webhatiri welithium-ion wakatosangana nekushomeka gore rapfuura nekuda kwekudiwa kwemusika weEV uye kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu.Pasi pemamiriro edu ekutanga, isu tinoronga kuti kuwanikwa kwebhatiri hakuzadzise zvinodiwa kusvika 2023. "
"Musika webhatiri welithium-ion wakatosangana nekushomeka gore rapfuura nekuda kwekudiwa kwemusika weEV uye kukwira kwemitengo yezvinhu.Pasi pemamiriro edu ekutanga, isu tinoronga kuti kuwanikwa kwebhatiri hakuzadzise zvinodiwa kusvika 2023. "
"Isu tinotenda kuti kutariswa kwelithium kunonyanya kukonzerwa nekuti chikamu chemigodhi yelithium chiri kushomeka kana chichienzaniswa nenickel," kambani yakanyora mukutsvagisa.
"Isu tinofungidzira kuti maEVs achave akatarisana nepamusoro pe80.0% yepasi rose yelithium inoda kusvika 2030 zvichienzaniswa ne19.3% chete yepasi rose nickel supply muna 2030."
Lithium mutengo wekufanotaura: Mafungiro eVaongorori
Fitch Solutions mumutengo wayo welithium fungidziro ye2022 inofungidzirwa bhatiri-giredhi lithium carbonate mutengo muChina kusvika pakati pemadhora zviuru makumi maviri nerimwe patani gore rino, zvichirerutsira kusvika pakati pemadhora zviuru gumi nemapfumbamwe patani muna 2023.
Nicholas Trickett, simbi uye muongorori wemigodhi paFitch Solutions akanyorera Capital.com, akati:
"Tichiri kutarisira kudzikiswa kwemitengo gore rinouya sezvo migodhi mitsva ichatanga kugadzirwa muna 2022 na2023, mitengo yakakwira ichiparadza zvimwe zvinodiwa sezvo vatengi vari kuderedzwa nekutenga mota dzemagetsi (iyo yekutanga mutyairi wekukura kwezvinodiwa), uye vatengi vazhinji. vhara zvibvumirano zvenguva refu nevacheri vemigodhi.”
Iyo femu yaive mukugadzirisa fungidziro yemutengo welithium yakapihwa mitengo yakakwira iripo uye shanduko yemamiriro ehupfumi, akadaro Trickett.
Fitch Solutions fungidziro yepasi rose lithium carbonate supply ichawedzera ne219kilotonnes (kt) pakati pa2022 na2023 uye kumwe kuwedzera kwe194.4 kt pakati pa2023 na2024, akadaro Trickett.
Mumutengo welithium fungidziro ye2022 kubva kuhupfumi data provider Trading Economics inotarisirwa kuti lithium carbonate muChina itengese paCNY482,204.55/tonne pakupera Q3 2022 uye CNY502,888.80 mumwedzi gumi nemiviri.
Nekuda kwekusagadzikana uye kusava nechokwadi pamusoro pekupa uye kudiwa, vaongorori vanogona kungopa pfupi-pfupi kufanotaura.Ivo havana kupa fungidziro yemutengo welithium we2025 kana fungidziro yemutengo we2030.
Pakutarisa mukatilithiumkufungidzira kwemutengo, yeuka kuti kufanotaura kwevanoongorora kunogona kuve uye kwave kusiri.Kana iwe uchida kuisa mari mu lithium, iwe unofanirwa kuita yako tsvagiridzo yekutanga.
Sarudzo yako yekudyara inofanirwa kuenderana nemafungiro ako ekuisa njodzi, hunyanzvi hwako mumusika uyu, kupararira kwepodfolio yako uye kugadzikana kwaunonzwa nezvekurasikirwa nemari.Uye usambofa wakaisa mari yakawanda kupfuura yaunokwanisa kurasikirwa nayo.
Nguva yekutumira: Sep-17-2022